Investigating expert bias toward statistical group feedback in the Delphi Technique

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2005-01-01
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Tolon, Kaya
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Altmetrics
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In this thesis, effects of deception on convergence in the Delphi Technique have been investigated through an "e-Delphi" experiment where Prescribed Deceptive Feedback was given as the statistical group response. The subject of the e-Delphi experiment was to estimate areas of irregular shapes by a panel of participants who had more than sufficient expertise in the subject matter - in this case background in mathematics - to reach reasonable responses. It was demonstrated that most of the participants had a tendency to move toward the group response, although such a move was unwarranted. The primary conclusion from this exercise is that a well-defined qualification for expertise in the subject matter is not enough to become a good Delphi panelist. The effect of deception was strengthened by iteration, and for the most part self-ratings of confidence of responses increased over the rounds.

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Interdisciplinary graduate studies
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