Billion-Dollar Natural Disasters: What Does the Future Look Like?

dc.contributor.author Shukla, Charchit
dc.contributor.author MacKenzie, Cameron
dc.contributor.department Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
dc.date 2021-03-16T02:08:13.000
dc.date.accessioned 2021-04-30T08:44:55Z
dc.date.available 2021-04-30T08:44:55Z
dc.date.copyright Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2020
dc.date.issued 2020-01-01
dc.description.abstract <p>The average cost of natural disasters and damage to the U.S. economy has increased each year from approximately $35 billion in 1980 to $300 billion in 2017. This increase in the cost of natural disasters could be due to an increase in the strength and frequency of natural disasters and/or growth in the U.S. economy. We forecast the cost of natural disasters by fitting probability distributions to the historical cost of billion-dollar disasters. We model the cost of natural disasters based on all weather-related natural disasters that cost more than $1 billion since 1980 and based only on those natural disasters that cost more than $1 billion that occurred in the past 20 years. Using the data from 1980 to 2018, the model forecasts the annual expected cost to be $52 billion. However, if only the recent disaster data is used to the fit the model, we forecast the expected annual cost to be $93 billion.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>The proceeding is published as Shukla, Charchit, and Cameron A. MacKenzie. "Billion-Dollar Natural Disasters: What Does the Future Look Like?" In: L. Cromarty, R. Shirwaiker, P. Wang, eds., <em>IISE Annual Conference and Expo 2020</em>. Proceedings of a meeting held May 3-June 2, 2020. Posted with permission.</p>
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/imse_conf/215/
dc.identifier.articleid 1216
dc.identifier.contextkey 21448659
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath imse_conf/215
dc.identifier.uri https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/105105
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/imse_conf/215/0-IISE_Permission_Grant.pdf|||Fri Jan 14 22:38:06 UTC 2022
dc.source.bitstream archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/imse_conf/215/2020_MacKenzieCameron_BillionDollar.pdf|||Fri Jan 14 22:38:07 UTC 2022
dc.subject.disciplines Public Economics
dc.subject.disciplines Risk Analysis
dc.subject.disciplines Systems Engineering
dc.subject.keywords Natural disasters
dc.subject.keywords economic impacts
dc.subject.keywords probabilistic forecast
dc.subject.keywords Monte Carlo simulation
dc.title Billion-Dollar Natural Disasters: What Does the Future Look Like?
dc.type article
dc.type.genre conference
dspace.entity.type Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication ecd737cd-4b41-4270-9289-39fb4be29378
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 51d8b1a0-5b93-4ee8-990a-a0e04d3501b1
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