Prediction of remaining life of power transformers based on left truncated and right censored lifetime data McCalley, James Hong, Yili Meeker, William McCalley, James Meeker, William
dc.contributor.department Statistics 2018-02-16T20:47:26.000 2020-07-02T06:56:18Z 2020-07-02T06:56:18Z 2008-07-01
dc.description.abstract <p>Prediction of the remaining life of high-voltage power transformers is an important issue for energy companies because of the need for planning maintenance and capital expenditures. Lifetime data for such transformers are complicated because transformer lifetimes can extend over many decades and transformer designs and manufacturing practices have evolved. We were asked to develop statistically-based predictions for the lifetimes of an energy company’s fleet of high-voltage transmission and distribution transformers. The company’s data records begin in 1980, providing information on installation and failure dates of transformers. Although the dataset contains many units that were installed before 1980, there is no information about units that were installed and failed before 1980. Thus, the data are left truncated and right censored. We use a parametric life-time model to describe the lifetime distribution of individual transformers. We develop a statistical procedure, based on age-adjusted life distributions, for computing a prediction interval for remaining life for individual transformers now in service. We then extend these ideas to provide predictions and prediction intervals for the cumulative number of failures, over a range of time, for the overall fleet of transformers.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>This preprint was published as Yili Hong, William Q. Meeker and James D. McCalley, "Prediction of Remaining Life of Power Transformers Based on Left Truncated and Right Censored Lifetime Data", <em>The Annals of Applied Statistics</em> (2009): 857-879, doi: : <a href="" target="_blank">10.1214/00-AOAS231</a>.</p>
dc.identifier archive/
dc.identifier.articleid 1062
dc.identifier.contextkey 7413221
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath stat_las_preprints/63
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/|||Sat Jan 15 01:19:56 UTC 2022
dc.subject.disciplines Statistics and Probability
dc.subject.keywords maximum likelihood
dc.subject.keywords random weighted bootstrap
dc.subject.keywords reliability
dc.subject.keywords regression analysis
dc.subject.keywords transformer maintenance
dc.title Prediction of remaining life of power transformers based on left truncated and right censored lifetime data
dc.type article
dc.type.genre article
dspace.entity.type Publication
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