Undergraduate International Student Enrollment Forecasting Model: An Application of Time Series Analysis

Thumbnail Image
Date
2019-01-01
Authors
Chen, Yu
Li, Ran
Major Professor
Advisor
Committee Member
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Authors
Person
Hagedorn, Linda
Professor Emeritus
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Organizational Unit
School of Education

The School of Education seeks to prepare students as educators to lead classrooms, schools, colleges, and professional development.

History
The School of Education was formed in 2012 from the merger of the Department of Curriculum and Instruction and the Department of Educational Leadership and Policy Studies.

Dates of Existence
2012-present

Related Units

  • College of Human Sciences (parent college)
  • Department of Curriculum and Instruction (predecessor)
  • Department of Educational Leadership and Policy Studies (predecessor)

Journal Issue
Is Version Of
Versions
Series
Department
Abstract

This study developed statistical models to forecast international undergraduate student enrollment at a Midwest university. The authors constructed a SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model with input variables to estimate future enrollment. The SARIMA model reflected enrollment patterns by semester through highlighting seasonality. Further, authors added input variables such as visa policy changes, the rapid increase of Chinese undergraduate enrollment, and tuition rate into the model estimation. The visa policy change and the increase of Chinese undergraduate enrollment were significant predictors of international undergraduate enrollment. The effect of tuition rates was significant but minimal in magnitude. Findings of this study generate significant implications for policy, enrollment management, and student services for international students.

Comments

This article is published as Chen, Y., Li, R., & Hagedorn, L. S. (2019). Undergraduate International Student Enrollment Forecasting Model: An Application of Time Series Analysis. Journal of International Students, 9(1), 242-261. doi: 10.32674/jis.v9i1.266

Description
Keywords
Citation
DOI
Copyright
Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2019
Collections