The Impact of Large-Scale Forcing on Skill of Simulated Convective Initiation and Upscale Evolution with Convection-Allowing Grid Spacings in the WRF Duda, Jeffrey Gallus, William Gallus, William
dc.contributor.department Geological and Atmospheric Sciences 2018-02-17T02:01:51.000 2020-06-30T04:05:00Z 2020-06-30T04:05:00Z Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2013 2013-01-01
dc.description.abstract <p>A set of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with 3-km grid spacing to investigate the skill at predicting convective initiation and upscale evolution into an MCS. Precipitation was verified using equitable threat scores (ETSs), the neighborhoodbased fractions skill score (FSS), and the Method of Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation. An illustrative case study more closely examines the strong influence that smaller-scale forcing features had on convective initiation. Initiation errors for the 36 cases were in the south-southwest direction on average, with a mean absolute displacement error of 105 km. No systematic temporal error existed, as the errors were approximately normally distributed. Despite earlier findings that quantitative precipitation forecast skill in convectionparameterizing simulations is a function of the strength of large-scale forcing, this relationship was not present in the present study for convective initiation. However, upscale evolution was better predicted for more strongly forced events according to ETSs and FSSs. For the upscale evolution, the relationship between ETSs and object-based ratings was poor. There was also little correspondence between object-based ratings and the skill at convective initiation. The lack of a relationship between the strength of large-scale forcing andmodel skill at forecasting initiation is likely due to a combination of factors, including the strong role of small-scale features that exert an influence on initiation, and potential errors in the analyses used to represent observations. The limit of predictability of individual convective storms on a 3-km grid must also be considered.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>This article is from <em>Weather and Forecasting</em> 28 (2013): 994, doi: <a href="" target="_blank">10.1175/WAF-D-13-00005.1</a>. Posted with permission.</p>
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier archive/
dc.identifier.articleid 1066
dc.identifier.contextkey 7657679
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath ge_at_pubs/69
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/|||Sat Jan 15 01:30:16 UTC 2022
dc.source.uri 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00005.1
dc.subject.disciplines Atmospheric Sciences
dc.subject.disciplines Geology
dc.subject.keywords absolute displacement
dc.subject.keywords convective initiation
dc.subject.keywords convective storms
dc.subject.keywords equitable threat score
dc.subject.keywords mesoscale convective system
dc.subject.keywords quantitative precipitation forecast
dc.subject.keywords small-scale features
dc.subject.keywords weather research and forecasting models
dc.subject.keywords computer simulation
dc.subject.keywords errors
dc.subject.keywords normal distribution
dc.subject.keywords systematic errors
dc.title The Impact of Large-Scale Forcing on Skill of Simulated Convective Initiation and Upscale Evolution with Convection-Allowing Grid Spacings in the WRF
dc.type article
dc.type.genre article
dspace.entity.type Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication 782ee936-54e9-45de-a7e6-2feb462aea2a
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 29272786-4c4a-4d63-98d6-e7b6d6730c45
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