Microstructure theory applied in RMB exchange rate and Bitcoin market price
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Rajesh Singh
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Abstract
This dissertation presents the application of microstructure theory on the RMB exchange rate
and Bitcoin market price. The existing research on the RMB exchange rate and Bitcoin market price
mainly studied their statistical characteristics through empirical methodologies. This dissertation
fills the research gap in microstructure theory applied to the RMB exchange rate and Bitcoin market
price. First, the model for the determination of the two Renminbi (RMB) exchange rates and their
interactions is established, and empirical analysis suggests that the interactions among the two
exchange rates and the explanatory variables are time-varying, in particular, after the "811 RMB
exchange rate reform", the offshore RMB exchange rate replaced the onshore RMB exchange rate as
the leading indicator. Second, a model describing the speculative behavior in the Bitcoin trading
market is developed. This theoretical model captures the statistical characteristics of Bitcoin
market prices. The fundamental value of Bitcoin system is controversial, and the mysterious and
innovative features of the Bitcoin system incite the speculation behaviours. The speculation leads
to the market bubble that brought the soaring and plunges of Bitcoin market price. Finally, an
economic model for Bitcoin mining competition based on the Bitcoin protocol is established, which
provides a benchmark for further research on mining competition in economics. For any Bitcoin
miners, the equilibrium input depends on the comparison of the miner's own marginal cost with
that of other miners, however, whether profit can be obtained or not depends on the miner's own
fixed cost.