The use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to evaluate quantitative precipitation forecast as a function of observed convective system morphology
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Abstract
The Ebert-McBride technique (EMT) is an entity-oriented method useful for quantitative precipitation forecast verification. In this thesis, a research study is performed in which the EMT was modified to optimize pattern matching of quantitative precipitation forecasts to stage-IV observations during the 2002 International H₂O Project (IHOP). The technique was used to identify several systematic sources of error as a function of mesoscale convective system (MCS) morphology in three 12-km model simulations run over the IHOP domain: Eta, MM5, and WRF. To investigate these errors based on MCS type, an objective radar-based classification scheme was developed. A background review on QPF verification issues and MCS classification schemes is provided. The results show that the Eta model produced average rain rates, peak rainfall amounts, and total rain volume that were lower than observed for almost all types of convective systems. This is consistent with previous works dealing with the Eta's use of the Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) convective parameterization. Like the Eta, the MM5 and WRF underestimated rain volume for most MCS types. However, these models generated average rain rates and peak rainfall amounts that were larger than observed, implying a sizeable reduction in areal coverage. The results for the WRF and MM5 are consistent with previous observations of mesoscale models run with explicit microphysics and no convective parameterization scheme. A decomposition of mean square errors (MSEs) into displacement, pattern, and volume components are shown as well. Al three models forecast rainfall too far northwest for linear systems overall. This is consistent with previous 12-km simulations where improper predictions of cold pool dynamics occur at this grid spacing (i.e., the forecasts are too slow with cold pool development and thus MCS evolution). Finally, the average pattern error was found to be the largest component of error for most MCS types. The average pattern error for the Eta was much lower than the MM5 and WRF for continuous MCS types, a result consistent with its known lack of variability when using the BMJ convective scheme. Consequently, the Eta had significantly lower total MSE compared to the MM5 and WRF for these types.