Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015–2016

dc.contributor.author McGowan, Craig
dc.contributor.author Niemi, Jarad
dc.contributor.author Niemi, Jarad
dc.contributor.author Ulloa, Nehemias
dc.contributor.author Will, Katie
dc.contributor.department Statistics
dc.date 2019-02-14T10:23:29.000
dc.date.accessioned 2020-07-02T06:56:50Z
dc.date.available 2020-07-02T06:56:50Z
dc.date.issued 2019-01-01
dc.description.abstract <p>Since 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015–2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal peak intensity and short-term forecasts, while forecast skill for timing of season onset and peak week was generally low. Higher forecast skill was associated with team participation in previous influenza forecasting challenges and utilization of ensemble forecasting techniques. The mean ensemble consistently performed well and outperformed historical trend predictions. CDC and contributing teams will continue to advance influenza forecasting and work to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts to facilitate increased incorporation into public health response efforts.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>This article is published as McGowan, Craig J., Matthew Biggerstaff, Michael Johansson, Karyn M. Apfeldorf, Michal Ben-Nun, Logan Brooks, Matteo Convertino et al. "Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015–2016." <em>Scientific reports </em>9 (2019): 683. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-36361-9">10.1038/s41598-018-36361-9</a>.</p>
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/stat_las_pubs/151/
dc.identifier.articleid 1153
dc.identifier.contextkey 13730983
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath stat_las_pubs/151
dc.identifier.uri https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/90456
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/stat_las_pubs/151/2019_Niemi_CollaborativeEfforts.pdf|||Fri Jan 14 20:35:55 UTC 2022
dc.source.uri 10.1038/s41598-018-36361-9
dc.subject.disciplines Influenza Humans
dc.subject.disciplines Public Health
dc.subject.disciplines Statistical Models
dc.subject.disciplines Statistics and Probability
dc.title Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015–2016
dc.type article
dc.type.genre article
dspace.entity.type Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication 31b412ec-d498-4926-901e-2cb5c2b5a31d
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 264904d9-9e66-4169-8e11-034e537ddbca
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