How anti-corruption policy of mainland China affects Macau gaming industry
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Macau has grown to become one of the famous gambling centers around the world. However, China’s anti-corruption policy challenged Macau and led Macau to a significant gaming revenue decline. This study applied seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) with intervention analysis to examine Macau’s quarterly gross gaming revenue, VIP baccarat revenue, and slot coin-in revenue from the first quarter of 2005 and last quarter of 2016 and determined the Macau gaming industry was affected by the anti-corruption policy. SARIMA models on three-time series were fitted by SAS time series forecasting system. The results showed that gross gaming revenue, VIP baccarat revenue, and slot coin-in revenue were significantly affected by the anti-corruption policy of mainland China. The findings of this study could be an initial empirical study for analyzing and forecasting Macau gaming industry performance when a policy event happened.