African Swine Fever in China: An Update

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2019-01-01
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Ji, Yongjie
Li, Minghao
Zlong, Tao
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Hayes, Dermot
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Zhang, Wendong
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Center for Agricultural and Rural Development

The Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) conducts innovative public policy and economic research on agricultural, environmental, and food issues. CARD uniquely combines academic excellence with engagement and anticipatory thinking to inform and benefit society.

CARD researchers develop and apply economic theory, quantitative methods, and interdisciplinary approaches to create relevant knowledge. Communication efforts target state and federal policymakers; the research community; agricultural, food, and environmental groups; individual decision-makers; and international audiences.

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LAST NOVEMBER, we wrote an article (Shao et al. 2018) documenting the development of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and its impacts on regional hog and pork prices. Since then, ASF has continued to ravage China’s hog industry with 62 new cases from November 1, 2018 to March 27, 2019, resulting in a total of 114 cases. The total inventory of hog factories with ASF outbreaks has increased from 61,214 to 319,726 (click here to see an animated map of ASF cases in China). The pace of the outbreaks has somewhat slowed down from more than 20 cases per month in November and December last year to less than 10 cases per month this year. It is possible that the number of cases is greater than that reported, in part because provinces and producers do not have the economic incentive to report. In this article, we update the impacts of ASF on China’s hog inventory, pork imports, and future soybean imports.

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