Chaos and crisis: Is chaos theory an appropriate research program for the study of interstate crisis?

Abstract

The question of whether chaos theory is an appropriate research program for the study of interstate crisis is examined. In the first chapter, a concise history of the development of chaos is given, including its relations to topological studies. Chaos theory, loosely defined as sensitivity on initial conditions, is observed to consist of several important components: nonlinearity, dynamical systems, and attractors. In the second chapter, the basic concepts of international conflict, protracted conflict, war, and crisis are defined. The Unified Model of Crisis, as originally presented by Michael Brecher (1993), is explained in brief. A literature review on the theories of crisis decision-making is provided.

In the third chapter, a demonstration of the bifurcation of science, referring to the need for symbiosis between a researcher's methodological aim and basic purpose, is presented. The conceptualizations of chaos and crisis are superimposed and examined for their compatibility. Some general hypotheses are furnished for further exploration. Several limitations of the application of chaos to crisis are enumerated. And finally, some prospects for future research are suggested.