Assessing the impact of incomplete species sampling on estimates of speciation and extinction rates

dc.contributor.author Warnock, Rachel
dc.contributor.author Heath, Tracy
dc.contributor.author Heath, Tracy
dc.contributor.author Stadler, Tanja
dc.contributor.department Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology
dc.date 2020-03-27T22:35:32.000
dc.date.accessioned 2020-06-30T02:18:39Z
dc.date.available 2020-06-30T02:18:39Z
dc.date.copyright Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2020
dc.date.issued 2020-01-01
dc.description.abstract <p>Estimating speciation and extinction rates is essential for understanding past and present biodiversity, but is challenging given the incompleteness of the rock and fossil records. Interest in this topic has led to a divergent suite of independent methods—paleontological estimates based on sampled stratigraphic ranges and phylogenetic estimates based on the observed branching times in a given phylogeny of living species. The fossilized birth–death (FBD) process is a model that explicitly recognizes that the branching events in a phylogenetic tree and sampled fossils were generated by the same underlying diversification process. A crucial advantage of this model is that it incorporates the possibility that some species may never be sampled. Here, we present an FBD model that estimates tree-wide diversification rates from stratigraphic range data when the underlying phylogeny of the fossil taxa may be unknown. The model can be applied when only occurrence data for taxonomically identified fossils are available, but still accounts for the incomplete phylogenetic structure of the data. We tested this new model using simulations and focused on how inferences are impacted by incomplete fossil recovery. We compared our approach with a phylogenetic model that does not incorporate incomplete species sampling and to three fossil-based alternatives for estimating diversification rates, including the widely implemented boundary-crosser and three-timer methods. The results of our simulations demonstrate that estimates under the FBD model are robust and more accurate than the alternative methods, particularly when fossil data are sparse, as the FBD model incorporates incomplete species sampling explicitly.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>This article is published as Warnock, Rachel CM, Tracy A. Heath, and Tanja Stadler. "Assessing the impact of incomplete species sampling on estimates of speciation and extinction rates." <em>Paleobiology</em> (2020). doi: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pab.2020.12" target="_blank">10.1017/pab.2020.12</a>.</p>
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/eeob_ag_pubs/395/
dc.identifier.articleid 1401
dc.identifier.contextkey 17126013
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath eeob_ag_pubs/395
dc.identifier.uri https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/23280
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/eeob_ag_pubs/395/2020_Heath_AssessingImpact.pdf|||Fri Jan 14 23:56:14 UTC 2022
dc.source.uri 10.1017/pab.2020.12
dc.subject.disciplines Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
dc.title Assessing the impact of incomplete species sampling on estimates of speciation and extinction rates
dc.type article
dc.type.genre article
dspace.entity.type Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication a2ec1a9c-0960-48c0-a834-72856dce6407
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 6fa4d3a0-d4c9-4940-945f-9e5923aed691
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