A mandate to lead: independence leaders in power and the unlikelihood of civil war incidence

Abstract

<p>The field of civil conflict research focuses on how the structural features of states influence the odds of civil war occurring. This thesis discusses the impact that independence leaders and their reputations have on the likelihood of civil war incidence. Using data for every post-independence leader in Africa until 2004, I find that independence leaders are significantly less likely to experience civil war than a non independence leader in any given year, all else being equal.</p>