An Analysis of Grain Production Decline During the Early Transition in Ukraine: Bayesian Inference

dc.contributor.author Kurkalova, Lyubov
dc.contributor.author Carriquiry, Alicia
dc.contributor.author Carriquiry, Alicia
dc.contributor.department Statistics
dc.date 2018-02-16T18:42:12.000
dc.date.accessioned 2020-07-02T06:56:10Z
dc.date.available 2020-07-02T06:56:10Z
dc.date.issued 2002-04-01
dc.description.abstract <p>The first years of reforms in the former Soviet Union resulted in a sharp decline in agricultural production. Several reasons for the fall have been advanced, including a drop in state deliveries of production inputs, labor and management migration from the largescale collective system to the private sector, and the transition-related break in old production ties and networks. Little is known, however, about the relative contribution of all these factors to the decline in production efficiency. In this study, we quantify the contributions of weather variability, decline in input quantities, and changes in technical efficiency to the decline in Ukrainian grain production over 1989-1992. We model the stochastic production frontier using a three-level hierarchical model, and estimate its parameters from within a Bayesian framework. In the model, the time-varying technical efficiency depends on farm-specific factors. Non-informative or diffuse prior distributions are chosen where possible. We find that the decline in the use of production inputs accounts for over half of total output decline, while weather effects account for about 35% of the decline. The rest is attributable to a decline in the technical efficiency of collective farms during the transition years.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>This preprint was published as Lyubox Kurkalova and Alicia Carriquiry, "An Analysis of Grain Production Decline During the Early Transition in Ukraine: Bayesian Inference," American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2002): 1256-1263, doi: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8276.00387" target="_blank">10.1111/1467-8276.00387</a>.</p>
dc.identifier archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/stat_las_preprints/39/
dc.identifier.articleid 1035
dc.identifier.contextkey 7326788
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath stat_las_preprints/39
dc.identifier.uri https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/90331
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/stat_las_preprints/39/2002_CarriquiryA_AnalysisGrainProduction.pdf|||Fri Jan 14 23:54:45 UTC 2022
dc.source.uri 10.1111/1467-8276.00387
dc.subject.disciplines Statistics and Probability
dc.title An Analysis of Grain Production Decline During the Early Transition in Ukraine: Bayesian Inference
dc.type article
dc.type.genre article
dspace.entity.type Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication 6ddd5891-2ad0-4a93-89e5-8c35c28b0de4
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 264904d9-9e66-4169-8e11-034e537ddbca
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