Bayesian zero-inflated predictive modelling of herd-level Salmonella prevalence for risk-based surveillance
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The SafePork conference series began in 1996 to bring together international researchers, industry, and government agencies to discuss current Salmonella research and identify research needs pertaining to both pig and pork production. In subsequent years topics of research presented at these conferences expanded to include other chemical and biological hazards to pig and pork production.
The national control programme for Salmonella in Danish swine herds introduced in 1993 has led to a large decrease in pork-associated human cases of salmonellosis. The pork industry is increasingly focussed on the cost-effectiveness of surveillance while maintaining consumer confidence in the pork food supply. Using national control programme data from 2003 and 2004, we veloped a zero-inflated binomial model to predict which fanns were most at risk of Salmonella. We preferentially sampled these high-risk farms using two sampling schemes based on model predictions resulting from a farm's covariate pattern and its random effect.