Further Evaluation of Probabilistic Convective Precipitation Forecasts Using the QPF–PoP Neighborhood Relationship

dc.contributor.author Kochasic, Michael
dc.contributor.author Gallus, William
dc.contributor.author Schaffer, Christopher
dc.contributor.department Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
dc.date 2018-02-19T06:53:55.000
dc.date.accessioned 2020-06-30T04:04:14Z
dc.date.available 2020-06-30T04:04:14Z
dc.date.copyright Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2017
dc.date.embargo 2018-02-01
dc.date.issued 2017-08-01
dc.description.abstract <p>A neighborhood postprocessing approach that relates quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) to probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts applied to a single model run was found by Schaffer et al. to be as good as traditional ensemble-based approaches using 10 members in 30-h forecasts of convective precipitation. The present study evaluates if PoP forecasts derived from additional variations of the approach can improve PoP forecasts further compared with previous methods. Ensemble forecasts from the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) are used for neighborhood tests comparing a single model run and a traditional ensemble. In the first test, PoP forecasts for different combinations of training and testing datasets using a single model member with 4-km grid spacing are compared against those obtained with a 10-member traditional ensemble. Overall, forecasts for the neighborhood approach with just one member are only slightly less accurate to those using a more traditional neighborhood approach with the ensemble. PoP forecasts improve when using older data for training and newer data for testing. Assessments of the sensitivity of the neighborhood PoPs suggest that thinning of the horizontal grid at fine grid spacing is an effective way of maintaining the accuracy of PoP forecasts while reducing computational expenses. In an additional test, the diurnal variation of the forecast is examined on a day-by-day basis, showing good agreement between the two approaches for all but a few cases during 2008.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>This article is published as Kochasic, Michael C., William A. Gallus Jr, and Christopher J. Schaffer. "Further Evaluation of Probabilistic Convective Precipitation Forecasts Using the QPF-PoP Neighborhood Relationship." Weather and Forecasting 32, no. 4 (2017): 1423-1440. DOI: <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0227.1" target="_blank">10.1175/WAF-D-16-0227.1</a>. Posted with permission.</p>
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/ge_at_pubs/248/
dc.identifier.articleid 1251
dc.identifier.contextkey 11305074
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath ge_at_pubs/248
dc.identifier.uri https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/38190
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/ge_at_pubs/248/2017_Gallus_FurtherEvaluation.pdf|||Fri Jan 14 22:54:48 UTC 2022
dc.source.uri 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0227.1
dc.subject.disciplines Atmospheric Sciences
dc.subject.disciplines Climate
dc.subject.disciplines Meteorology
dc.title Further Evaluation of Probabilistic Convective Precipitation Forecasts Using the QPF–PoP Neighborhood Relationship
dc.type article
dc.type.genre article
dspace.entity.type Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication 782ee936-54e9-45de-a7e6-2feb462aea2a
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 29272786-4c4a-4d63-98d6-e7b6d6730c45
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