Projecting the Most Likely Annual Urban Heat Extremes in the Central United States

dc.contributor.author Jahn, David
dc.contributor.author Gallus, William
dc.contributor.author Nguyen, Phong
dc.contributor.author Pan, Qiyun
dc.contributor.author Cetin, Kristen
dc.contributor.author Byon, Eunshin
dc.contributor.author Manuel, Lance
dc.contributor.author Zhou, Yuyu
dc.contributor.author Jahani, Elham
dc.contributor.department Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
dc.contributor.department Human Computer Interaction
dc.date 2020-12-20T01:58:52.000
dc.date.accessioned 2021-02-25T23:44:26Z
dc.date.available 2021-02-25T23:44:26Z
dc.date.copyright Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2019
dc.date.issued 2019-11-20
dc.description.abstract <p>Climate studies based on global climate models (GCMs) project a steady increase in annual average temperature and severe heat extremes in central North America during the mid-century and beyond. However, the agreement of observed trends with climate model trends varies substantially across the region. The present study focuses on two different locations: Des Moines, IA and Austin, TX. In Des Moines, annual extreme temperatures have not increased over the past three decades unlike the trend of regionally-downscaled GCM data for the Midwest, likely due to a “warming hole” over the area linked to agricultural factors. This warming hole effect is not evident for Austin over the same time period, where extreme temperatures have been higher than projected by regionally-downscaled climate (RDC) forecasts. In consideration of the deviation of such RDC extreme temperature forecasts from observations, this study statistically analyzes RDC data in conjunction with observational data to define for these two cities a 95% prediction interval of heat extreme values by 2040. The statistical model is constructed using a linear combination of RDC ensemble-member annual extreme temperature forecasts with regression coefficients for individual forecasts estimated by optimizing model results against observations over a 52-year training period.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>This article is published as Jahn, David E., William A. Gallus, Phong TT Nguyen, Qiyun Pan, Kristen Cetin, Eunshin Byon, Lance Manuel, Yuyu Zhou, and Elham Jahani. "Projecting the Most Likely Annual Urban Heat Extremes in the Central United States." <em>Atmosphere</em> 10, no. 12 (2019): 727. DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120727" target="_blank">10.3390/atmos10120727</a>. Posted with permission.</p>
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/ge_at_pubs/328/
dc.identifier.articleid 1333
dc.identifier.contextkey 20486488
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath ge_at_pubs/328
dc.identifier.uri https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/96350
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/ge_at_pubs/328/2019_GallusWilliam_ProjectingMost.pdf|||Fri Jan 14 23:36:54 UTC 2022
dc.source.uri 10.3390/atmos10120727
dc.subject.disciplines Atmospheric Sciences
dc.subject.disciplines Energy Policy
dc.subject.disciplines Meteorology
dc.subject.disciplines Urban Studies
dc.subject.keywords urban heat extremes
dc.subject.keywords climate modeling
dc.subject.keywords energy planning
dc.title Projecting the Most Likely Annual Urban Heat Extremes in the Central United States
dc.type article
dc.type.genre article
dspace.entity.type Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication 782ee936-54e9-45de-a7e6-2feb462aea2a
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 29272786-4c4a-4d63-98d6-e7b6d6730c45
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