A Bayesian state-space model using age-at-harvest data for estimating the population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Wisconsin

dc.contributor.author Allen, Maximilian
dc.contributor.author Norton, Andrew
dc.contributor.author Li, Qing
dc.contributor.author Stauffer, Glenn
dc.contributor.author Roberts, Nathan
dc.contributor.author Luo, Yanshi
dc.contributor.author Li, Qing
dc.contributor.author MacFarland, David
dc.contributor.author Van Deelen, Timothy
dc.contributor.department Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
dc.date 2018-10-18T14:45:52.000
dc.date.accessioned 2020-06-30T04:48:20Z
dc.date.available 2020-06-30T04:48:20Z
dc.date.copyright Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2018
dc.date.issued 2018-08-20
dc.description.abstract <p>Population estimation is essential for the conservation and management of fish and wildlife, but accurate estimates are often difficult or expensive to obtain for cryptic species across large geographical scales. Accurate statistical models with manageable financial costs and field efforts are needed for hunted populations and using age-at-harvest data may be the most practical foundation for these models. Several rigorous statistical approaches that use age-at-harvest and other data to accurately estimate populations have recently been developed, but these are often dependent on (a) accurate prior knowledge about demographic parameters of the population, (b) auxiliary data, and (c) initial population size. We developed a two-stage state-space Bayesian model for a black bear (<em>Ursus americanus</em>) population with age-at-harvest data, but little demographic data and no auxiliary data available, to create a statewide population estimate and test the sensitivity of the model to bias in the prior distributions of parameters and initial population size. The posterior abundance estimate from our model was similar to an independent capture-recapture estimate from tetracycline sampling and the population trend was similar to the catch-per-unit-effort for the state. Our model was also robust to bias in the prior distributions for all parameters, including initial population size, except for reporting rate. Our state-space model created a precise estimate of the black bear population in Wisconsin based on age-at-harvest data and potentially improves on previous models by using little demographic data, no auxiliary data, and not being sensitive to initial population size.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>This article is published as Allen, Maximilian L., Andrew S. Norton, Glenn Stauffer, Nathan M. Roberts, Yanshi Luo, Qing Li, David MacFarland, and Timothy R. Van Deelen. "A Bayesian state-space model using age-at-harvest data for estimating the population of black bears (<em>Ursus americanus</em>) in Wisconsin." <em>Scientific Reports</em> 8, no. 1 (2018): 12440. DOI: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30988-4" target="_blank">10.1038/s41598-018-30988-4</a>. Posted with permission.</p>
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/imse_pubs/194/
dc.identifier.articleid 1195
dc.identifier.contextkey 13110611
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath imse_pubs/194
dc.identifier.uri https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/44490
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/imse_pubs/194/2018_LiQing_BayesianState.pdf|||Fri Jan 14 21:56:21 UTC 2022
dc.source.uri 10.1038/s41598-018-30988-4
dc.subject.disciplines Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
dc.subject.disciplines Statistical Models
dc.title A Bayesian state-space model using age-at-harvest data for estimating the population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Wisconsin
dc.type article
dc.type.genre article
dspace.entity.type Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication 27fc0085-16d7-4d93-8cf9-bd8aaa7a5115
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 51d8b1a0-5b93-4ee8-990a-a0e04d3501b1
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