Crop Weather Cycles: Myth or Reality?
Serious Corn Belt drought has followed an apparent 19-year cycle for 200 years. What is the risk of severe drought during the coming six years (2005-2010)? The climate is changing and will likely continue to do so, but will this change the size and suitability of the Midwest as far as Corn and Soybean production is concerned? The cycle suggests that risk of drought is greater during the next 6 years (2005-2010) than it was during the past 12, and history shows that the years of reduced yields seem to appear suddenly just when new record highs are being realized. There are some indicators of increased crop production risk, but there is no reason to assume that 2005 will be the "first drought of the new century."