Development programs for one-shot systems using multiple-state design reliability models
Design reliability at the beginning of a product development program is typically low and development costs account for a large proportion of the total product cost. Our research focuses on how to conduct "development programs" (series of tests and redesigns) to both achieve high final design reliability and spend as little of a fixed budget as possible on development. Multiple-state reliability models are used. We consider one-shot systems, which are destroyed at first use or during testing. Dynamic programming is used to identify the best test-and-redesign strategy and is shown to presently be computationally feasible for at least 5 state models. Our analysis is flexible enough to allow for accelerated testing in the case of ultra-high reliability requirements, where testing otherwise provides little information on design reliability growth.