China's Accession to the WTO: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?

Date
2001-06-01
Authors
Fuller, Frank
Beghin, John
Beghin, John
De Cara, Stéphane
Fabiosa, Jacinto
Fang, Cheng
Matthey, Holger
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Center for Agricultural and Rural Development
Abstract

The authors analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the FAPRI modeling framework. They incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased cotton imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.

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