Scenario reduction for stochastic unit commitment with wind penetration

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Feng, Yonghan
Ryan, Sarah
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Ryan, Sarah
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Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering
The Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering teaches the design, analysis, and improvement of the systems and processes in manufacturing, consulting, and service industries by application of the principles of engineering. The Department of General Engineering was formed in 1929. In 1956 its name changed to Department of Industrial Engineering. In 1989 its name changed to the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering.
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Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering

Uncertainties in the day-ahead forecasts for load and wind energy availability are considered in a reliability unit commitment problem. A two-stage stochastic program is formulated to minimize total expected cost, where commitments of thermal units are viewed as first-stage decisions and dispatch is relegated to the second stage. Scenario paths of hourly loads are generated according to a weather forecast-based load model. Wind energy scenarios are obtained by identifying analogue historical days. Net load scenarios are then created by crossing scenarios from each set and subtracting wind energy from load. A new heuristic scenario reduction method termed forward selection in recourse clusters (FSRC) is customized to alleviate the computational burden. Results of applying FSRC are compared with those of a classical scenario reduction method, fast forward selection (FFS) by evaluating the expected dispatch costs when the commitment decisions derived from each subset of scenarios are applied to the whole scenario set. In an instance down-sampled from data of an Independent System Operator in the U.S., the expected dispatch costs for both scenario reduction methods are similar, but FSRC improves reliability.


This is a manuscript of a proceedings published as Y. Feng and S. M. Ryan, Scenario Reduction for Stochastic Unit Commitment with Wind Penetration IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, July 2014. Posted with permission.

Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2014