Media Discontinuance: Modeling the Diffusion "S" Curve to Declines in Media Use

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2014-01-01
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Newell, Jay
Genschel, Ulrike
Zhang, Ni
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Newell, Jay
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Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication
The Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication offers two majors: Advertising (instructing students in applied communication for work in business or industry), and Journalism and Mass Communication (instructing students in various aspects of news and information organizing, writing, editing, and presentation on various topics and in various platforms). The Department of Agricultural Journalism was formed in 1905 in the Division of Agriculture. In 1925 its name was changed to the Department of Technical Journalism. In 1969 its name changed to the Department of Journalism and Mass Communications; from 1969 to 1989 the department was directed by all four colleges, and in 1989 was placed under the direction of the College of Sciences and Humanities (later College of Liberal Arts and Sciences). In 1998 its name was changed to the Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication.
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Abstract

The cumulative growth in innovations such as new media has been modeled with Scurves. However, the S-curve model has not been applied to mature innovations that have reached their peak of diffusion and begun to decline. This study explores the potential extension of the use of the S-curve to model decays in the availability or usage of traditional media. Using annual data from declines in telegrams, afternoon newspapers, vinyl records, outdoor movie theaters, and VHS tapes, this study finds that declines in incumbent media often follow a dramatic downward path that is more abrupt than that of media undergoing growth. Implications for media management and theory are discussed.

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This is a manuscript of an article from Journal of Media Business Studies 11 (2014): 27. Posted with permission.

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Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2014
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