Investigating expert bias toward statistical group feedback in the Delphi Technique

Thumbnail Image
Date
2005-01-01
Authors
Tolon, Kaya
Major Professor
Advisor
Committee Member
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Altmetrics
Abstract

In this thesis, effects of deception on convergence in the Delphi Technique have been investigated through an "e-Delphi" experiment where Prescribed Deceptive Feedback was given as the statistical group response. The subject of the e-Delphi experiment was to estimate areas of irregular shapes by a panel of participants who had more than sufficient expertise in the subject matter - in this case background in mathematics - to reach reasonable responses. It was demonstrated that most of the participants had a tendency to move toward the group response, although such a move was unwarranted. The primary conclusion from this exercise is that a well-defined qualification for expertise in the subject matter is not enough to become a good Delphi panelist. The effect of deception was strengthened by iteration, and for the most part self-ratings of confidence of responses increased over the rounds.

Series Number
Journal Issue
Is Version Of
Versions
Series
Academic or Administrative Unit
Theses & dissertations (Interdisciplinary)
Type
thesis
Comments
Rights Statement
Copyright
Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2005
Funding
Supplemental Resources
Source