Projections going into Harvest

Abstract

The changing of seasons from summer to autumn usually shifts the focus of agricultural market traders. For crops, the focus shifts from supplies to usage. For livestock, the focus shifts from the current year to the upcoming year. USDA’s monthly projections of the global agricultural supply and demand situation help frame those shifts and outline the anticipated movements within the markets. The September report provided a mix of signals across the crop and livestock markets. In general, the expansion of meat production is slowing down. While meat demand remains strong, animal numbers, especially in beef, have pulled back due to a variety of reasons. Livestock prices are projected to fall in 2022, given the slightly higher production, with the exception of beef (see table 1). Crop production is also projected higher this fall, despite the drought. Crop usage, which was strong throughout most of the 2020 marketing year, fell off during the summer. The crop usage outlook for the 2021 crops was increased slightly, but still is below the previous year’s levels.