Using random forests to estimate win probability before each play of an NFL game

dc.contributor.author Lock, Dennis
dc.contributor.author Nettleton, Dan
dc.contributor.author Nettleton, Dan
dc.contributor.department Statistics
dc.date 2019-09-22T05:28:12.000
dc.date.accessioned 2020-07-02T06:57:21Z
dc.date.available 2020-07-02T06:57:21Z
dc.date.copyright Wed Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2014
dc.date.issued 2014-01-01
dc.description.abstract <p>Before any play of a National Football League (NFL) game, the probability that a given team will win depends on many situational variables (such as time remaining, yards to go for a first down, field position and current score) as well as the relative quality of the two teams as quantified by the Las Vegas point spread. We use a random forest method to combine pre-play variables to estimate Win Probability (WP) before any play of an NFL game. When a subset of NFL play-by-play data for the 12 seasons from 2001 to 2012 is used as a training dataset, our method provides WP estimates that resemble true win probability and accurately predict game outcomes, especially in the later stages of games. In addition to being intrinsically interesting in real time to observers of an NFL football game, our WP estimates can provide useful evaluations of plays and, in some cases, coaching decisions.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>This article is published as Lock, Dennis, and Dan Nettleton. "Using random forests to estimate win probability before each play of an NFL game." <em>Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports</em> 10, no. 2 (2014): 197-205. doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0100">10.1515/jqas-2013-0100</a>. Posted with permission.</p>
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/stat_las_pubs/234/
dc.identifier.articleid 1231
dc.identifier.contextkey 14899277
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath stat_las_pubs/234
dc.identifier.uri https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/handle/20.500.12876/90548
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/stat_las_pubs/234/0-Repository_Policy_for_De_Gruyter.pdf|||Fri Jan 14 22:48:31 UTC 2022
dc.source.bitstream archive/lib.dr.iastate.edu/stat_las_pubs/234/2014_Nettleton_UsingRandom.pdf|||Fri Jan 14 22:48:32 UTC 2022
dc.source.uri 10.1515/jqas-2013-0100
dc.subject.disciplines Probability
dc.subject.disciplines Statistical Models
dc.subject.keywords random forest
dc.subject.keywords NFL
dc.subject.keywords win probability
dc.title Using random forests to estimate win probability before each play of an NFL game
dc.type article
dc.type.genre article
dspace.entity.type Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication 7d86677d-f28f-4ab1-8cf7-70378992f75b
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 264904d9-9e66-4169-8e11-034e537ddbca
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