Of (flying) pigs and (black) swans: strengths and limitations of a risk-based food safety system for handling potential emerging pork risks

Abstract

<p>‘Black swans’ are a widely used metaphor for surprising, extreme events, generally with devastating consequences, that lie far outside the realm of anticipated possibility. Because they are inherently challenging to predict using traditional probability theory, black swans pose formidable challenges to risk analysis and risk management, regardless of whether the event is truly unknown to the scientific community (‘unknown unknowns’) or whether it is merely not known or adequately considered by the relevant parties.</p>