The Phase One Trade Deal: Projections and Implications
There have been a number of agricultural market movers (issues that change the direction and intensity of price moves) over the past year; however, most of these movers cancel each other out. Weather problems limited supplies and pushed prices higher, but the trade disputes and tariffs limited usage and offset the price impacts. With the passage of the USMCA and the signing of trade deals with China and Japan over the past few months, there is some positive news on the trade front. However, as the market reaction to the US-China trade deal signing indicates, agricultural markets are not interested in the political deals, but in actually seeing trade flows change due to these deals.