Fresh Projections for the Next Marketing Year

Abstract

USDA always adds its outlook for the next marketing year with the May World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The timing allows USDA analysts to see the development of supply and demand changes in the current marketing year and incorporate those trends, along with information on crop planting progress and weather conditions, into the forecasts for the next marketing year. Given the differential timing of the marketing years between crops and livestock, the new projections cover the 2023 marketing year for livestock (which basically aligns with the calendar year) and the 2022 marketing year for crops (which for Iowa crops, starts in September with the coming harvest). Drought conditions in the western United States, the spread of avian influenza, the planting delays this spring, the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the volatility in the energy markets, and the continuation of supply chain issues, among other factors, influence these projections. With this myriad of confounding factors shaping the ag markets, these projections will likely change significantly over the coming months, but these estimates provide us the best guess on what the future holds given what we know today.