Future-Proofing Energy Infrastructure: Power Grid Risk Assessment
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2025-01-09
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Springer, Cham
Abstract
Climate-change-imposed challenges in the form of heightened frequency and intensity of weather events exert additional pressure on securing the imperative continuous and reliable power supply, leading to increased power outages. This research proposes a comprehensive framework for enhancing the resilience of electric power networks (EPNs) through reliability-based risk assessment, promoting predictions and proactive decisions. The presented research discusses weather phenomena, their association with climate change, and their projected impacts. The numerical weather prediction model, WRF 3.4.1, with a 4 km resolution cell grid, gives a more accurate projection of high winds’ frequency and intensity. The simulation period from 2086 to 2099 is based on a reference control period spanning from 2000 to 2013, with adjustments made to background conditions using climate model output consistent with projections for the late century, a pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique. The presented research focuses on the wooden power distribution poles. The reliability assessment approach employs fragility development and analysis against wind scenarios through advanced modeling techniques and statistical analysis used to mimic historical and projected wind scenarios and to allow numerous factors on both the demand and capacity sides and their inherent uncertainties to be considered. The annual probability of failure is obtained by performing a mathematical convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves, showing the reflection of the effects of climate change on the annual probability of failure. Scaling these results to a system-level resilience assessment will facilitate the flexible energy design strategies integration and allow smoother net-zero standards incorporation and adaptation to the changing environmental conditions. This understanding will allow the decision-makers to evaluate the critical locations within a distribution line and plan to address the vulnerabilities by hardening the assets or implementing modern microgrid techniques or distributed energy resource integration.
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This proceeding is published as Qudaisat, M., Houssou, D., Gallus, W., Alipour, A. (2025). Future-Proofing Energy Infrastructure: Power Grid Risk Assessment. In: Kioumarsi, M., Shafei, B. (eds) The 1st International Conference on Net-Zero Built Environment. NTZR 2024. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol 237. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69626-8_94
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