Scenario-Based Approach to Analysis of Travel Time Reliability with Traffic Simulation Models

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Kim, Jiwon
Mahmassani, Hani
Vovsha, Peter
Stogios, Yannis
Dong, Jing
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Dong-O'Brien, Jing
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Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering

The Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering seeks to apply knowledge of the laws, forces, and materials of nature to the construction, planning, design, and maintenance of public and private facilities. The Civil Engineering option focuses on transportation systems, bridges, roads, water systems and dams, pollution control, etc. The Construction Engineering option focuses on construction project engineering, design, management, etc.

The Department of Civil Engineering was founded in 1889. In 1987 it changed its name to the Department of Civil and Construction Engineering. In 2003 it changed its name to the Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering.

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  • Department of Civil Engineering (1889-1987)
  • Department of Civil and Construction Engineering (1987-2003)
  • Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering (2003–present)

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This study established a conceptual framework for capturing the probabilistic nature of travel times with the use of existing traffic simulation models. The framework features three components: scenario manager, traffic simulation models, and trajectory processor. The scenario manager captures exogenous sources of variation in travel times through external scenarios consistent with real-world roadway disruptions. The traffic simulation models then produce individual vehicle trajectories for input scenarios while further introducing randomness that stems from endogenous sources of variation. Finally, the trajectory processor constructs distributions of travel time either for each scenario or for multiple scenarios to allow users to investigate scenario-specific impact on variability in travel times and overall system reliability. Within this framework, the paper discusses methodologies for performing scenario-based reliability analysis that focuses on (a) approaches to obtaining distributions of travel times from scenario-specific outputs and (b) issues and practices associated with designing and generating input scenarios. The proposed scenario-based approach was applied to a real-world network to show detailed procedures, analysis results, and their implications.


This is a manuscript of an article published as Kim, Jiwon, Hani S. Mahmassani, Peter Vovsha, Yannis Stogios, and Jing Dong. "Scenario-based approach to analysis of travel time reliability with traffic simulation models." Transportation Research Record 2391, no. 1 (2013): 56-68. DOI: 10.3141%2F2391-06. Posted with permission.

Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2013