Quantifying the Earthquake Risk to the Electric Power Transmission System in Los Angeles at the Census Tract Level

Abstract

This paper develops a probabilistic earthquake risk assessment for the electric power transmission system in the City of Los Angeles. Via a dc load flow analysis of a suite of damage scenarios that reflect the seismic risk in Los Angeles, we develop a probabilistic representation for load shed during the restoration process. This suite of damage scenarios and their associated annual probabilities of occurrence are developed from 351 risk-adjusted earthquake scenarios using ground motion that collectively represent the seismic risk in Los Angeles at the census tract level. For each of these 351 earthquake scenarios, 12 damage scenarios are developed that form a probabilistic representation of the consequences of the earthquake scenario on the components of the transmission system. This analysis reveals that substation damage is the key driver of load shed. Damage to generators has a substantial but still secondary impact, and damage to transmission lines has significantly less impact. We identify the census tracts that are substantially more vulnerable to power transmission outages during the restoration process. Further, we explore the impact of forecasted increases in penetration of residential storage paired with rooftop solar. The deployment of storage paired with rooftop solar is represented at the census tract level and is assumed to be able to generate and store power for residential demand during the restoration process. The deployment of storage paired with rooftop solar reduces the load shed during the restoration process, but the distribution of this benefit is correlated with household income and whether the dwelling is owned or rented.