China's Accession to the World Trade Organization: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?

Date
2003-01-01
Authors
Fuller, Frank
Beghin, John
De Cara, Stéphane
Fabiosa, Jacinto
Feng, Cheng
Matthey, Holger
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Economics
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EconomicsCenter for Agricultural and Rural Development
Abstract

We analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.

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This is a working paper of an article from Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 25 (2003): 399, doi:10.1111/1467-9353.00146.

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