The 4 June 1999 Derecho event: A particularly difficult challenge for numerical weather prediction

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2005-10-01
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Correia, James
Jankov, Isidora
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Gallus, William
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Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

The Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences offers majors in three areas: Geology (traditional, environmental, or hydrogeology, for work as a surveyor or in mineral exploration), Meteorology (studies in global atmosphere, weather technology, and modeling for work as a meteorologist), and Earth Sciences (interdisciplinary mixture of geology, meteorology, and other natural sciences, with option of teacher-licensure).

History
The Department of Geology and Mining was founded in 1898. In 1902 its name changed to the Department of Geology. In 1965 its name changed to the Department of Earth Science. In 1977 its name changed to the Department of Earth Sciences. In 1989 its name changed to the Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences.

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1898-present

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  • Department of Geology and Mining (1898-1902)
  • Department of Geology (1902-1965)
  • Department of Earth Science (1965-1977)
  • Department of Earth Sciences (1977-1989)

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Abstract

Warm season convective system rainfall forecasts remain a particularly difficult forecast challenge. For these events, it is possible that ensemble forecasts would provide helpful information unavailable in a single deterministic forecast. In this study, an intense derecho event accompanied by a well-organized band of heavy rainfall is used to show that for some situations, the predictability of rainfall even within a 12-24-h period is so low that a wide range of simulations using different models, different physical parameterizations, and different initial conditions all fail to provide even a small signal that the event will occur. The failure of a wide range of models and parameterizations to depict the event might suggest inadequate representation of the initial conditions. However, a range of different initial conditions also failed to lead to a well-simulated event, suggesting that some events are unlikely to be predictable with the current observational network, and ensemble guidance for such cases may provide limited additional information useful to a forecaster.

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This article is from Weather and Forecasting 20 (2005): 705, doi: 10.1175/WAF883.1. Posted with permission.

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Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2005
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