The 4 June 1999 Derecho event: A particularly difficult challenge for numerical weather prediction Gallus, William Gallus, William Correia, James Jankov, Isidora
dc.contributor.department Geological and Atmospheric Sciences 2018-02-17T01:32:28.000 2020-06-30T04:04:43Z 2020-06-30T04:04:43Z Sat Jan 01 00:00:00 UTC 2005 2005-10-01
dc.description.abstract <p>Warm season convective system rainfall forecasts remain a particularly difficult forecast challenge. For these events, it is possible that ensemble forecasts would provide helpful information unavailable in a single deterministic forecast. In this study, an intense derecho event accompanied by a well-organized band of heavy rainfall is used to show that for some situations, the predictability of rainfall even within a 12-24-h period is so low that a wide range of simulations using different models, different physical parameterizations, and different initial conditions all fail to provide even a small signal that the event will occur. The failure of a wide range of models and parameterizations to depict the event might suggest inadequate representation of the initial conditions. However, a range of different initial conditions also failed to lead to a well-simulated event, suggesting that some events are unlikely to be predictable with the current observational network, and ensemble guidance for such cases may provide limited additional information useful to a forecaster.</p>
dc.description.comments <p>This article is from <em>Weather and Forecasting</em> 20 (2005): 705, doi: <a href="" target="_blank">10.1175/WAF883.1</a>. Posted with permission.</p>
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.identifier archive/
dc.identifier.articleid 1040
dc.identifier.contextkey 7630932
dc.identifier.s3bucket isulib-bepress-aws-west
dc.identifier.submissionpath ge_at_pubs/38
dc.language.iso en
dc.source.bitstream archive/|||Fri Jan 14 23:52:10 UTC 2022
dc.source.uri 10.1175/WAF883.1
dc.subject.disciplines Agronomy and Crop Sciences
dc.subject.disciplines Atmospheric Sciences
dc.subject.disciplines Geology
dc.subject.keywords Agronomy
dc.subject.keywords atmospheric thermodynamics
dc.subject.keywords climate change
dc.subject.keywords climatology
dc.subject.keywords heat convection
dc.subject.keywords mathermatical models
dc.subject.keywords rain
dc.subject.keywords numerical weather prediction
dc.subject.keywords rainfall forecasts
dc.subject.keywords warm season convective system
dc.subject.keywords weather forecasting
dc.subject.keywords ensemble forecasting
dc.subject.keywords parameterization
dc.title The 4 June 1999 Derecho event: A particularly difficult challenge for numerical weather prediction
dc.type article
dc.type.genre article
dspace.entity.type Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication 782ee936-54e9-45de-a7e6-2feb462aea2a
relation.isOrgUnitOfPublication 29272786-4c4a-4d63-98d6-e7b6d6730c45
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