Last year, soybean rust was found in Texas in early November—a significant finding because this region has been a source for rust diseases of other crops, such as wheat. It is commonly considered that windborne spores are likely to move more efficiently to northern soybean production regions from Texas than from southeastern regions (Florida and Georgia). However, soybean rust differs from wheat rust in a growing season, and therefore, its risk has not been calculated previously. In this article, we provide our modeling results to assess one important early factor: the potential for spore production in Texas early in the season using historical climate data.