Revisiting the Phillips Curve with a Structural VAR
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Our purpose is to examine the broad consistency of the data with the stylized predictions ofa simple textbook Keynesian model of inflation and unemployment. Models in this class, despite their simplicity and lack of a firm foundation in general equilibrium theory, form the basis for much of what we teach our undergraduates and for much of the public and media discussion of macroeconomic events and policies. Furthermore, the "reasonableness" of more sophisticated micro-based macroeconomic models are often judged according to how well their conclusions correspond to those that come from the aggregate supply and aggregate demand framework.